{"id":46124,"date":"2018-10-27T16:07:28","date_gmt":"2018-10-27T22:07:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/?p=46124"},"modified":"2021-02-07T22:46:22","modified_gmt":"2021-02-08T05:46:22","slug":"calgarys-recovery-limited-by-joblessness-high-downtown-vacancy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/2018\/10\/27\/calgarys-recovery-limited-by-joblessness-high-downtown-vacancy\/","title":{"rendered":"Calgary\u2019s recovery limited by joblessness, high downtown vacancy"},"content":{"rendered":"

T<\/span>hree years after the start of a devastating recession, Calgary\u2019s economy is growing, but is being held back by high unemployment and downtown office vacancy rates.<\/p>\n

A<\/span>nd that is proving to be a challenge for everyone from graduating post-secondary students, to small businesses and city taxpayers.<\/p>\n

Economic Outlook 2019, held on Oct. 3 at the Calgary TELUS Convention Centre, featured a series of speakers who discussed past trends and future projections of various economic metrics like growth, employment, and consumer confidence in Calgary and beyond.<\/p>\n

Economic Outlook, which occurs annually, is hosted by Calgary Economic Development, a not-for-profit funded by the city and various community partners.<\/p>\n

Its goal is to attract business investment to the city.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Reasons to be blue.<\/strong> Members of Calgary’s business community attend a networking reception during Calgary Economic Outlook 2019 (Photo by Sean Feagan\/The Press)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

After Calgary\u2019s lacklustre economic performance in 2015 and 2016, growth rates within the province are the highest in the nation, Mayor Naheed Nenshi told the conference.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlberta will lead the country in economic growth this year, and it will continue to grow, and continue to grow well,\u201d said Nenshi.<\/p>\n

Real GDP growth in 2018 is projected at 2.6 per cent, but is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2019, said Todd Hirsch, chief economist at ATB Financial.<\/p>\n

These projected growth rates are less than half of what the provincial growth rate was before the economic downturn, a discrepancy due to the lack of a true recovery within Alberta\u2019s oil and gas industry, said Hirsch.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe energy sector is no longer as strong a growth engine at it used to be in our economy but it is still the backbone of the economy,\u201d said Hirsch.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou want to take care of your backbone.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"
Predicting the trends. <\/strong>Todd Hirsch, chief economist at ATB Financial, delivers a speech at the Economic Outlook 2019 held at the TELUS Convention Centre in Calgary on Wednesday, Oct. 3, 2018. (Photo by Sean Feagan\/The Press)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Being less reliant on the energy sector could ultimately be beneficial to the city and province, said Hirsch.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is a slower, more moderate rate of growth, but it is one that will encourage more stability, more diversity, and a healthier economy for Calgary and Alberta,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Despite growth rates improving throughout the province, Calgary still faces a precariously high unemployment rate, said Nenshi.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter many months of declines in our employment rate, we now see, over the last seven months, a real stagnation or flattening of the employment rate,\u201d said Nenshi.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis recovery is starting to look like a jobless recovery, and that\u2019s not good.\u201d<\/p>\n

Calgary\u2019s high unemployment rate, which is largely a product of job losses in the energy sector, has been ameliorated by the growth of other industries, said Hirsch.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn other sectors of the economy, we\u2019re seeing job creation, so the composition of the job market is changing,\u201d said Hirsch.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut we still need more jobs and get that unemployment rate lower.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another major challenge holding back the recovery in Calgary is high commercial vacancy downtown, which has reduced the city\u2019s tax revenue, said Nenshi.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur flexibility, and our ability to adapt and change is severely constrained by that downtown vacancy rate,\u201d said Nenshi.<\/p>\n

Downtown vacancy rates in Calgary are at a record high, said Pedro Antunes, deputy chief economist and executive director of the Conference Board of Canada.<\/p>\n

\u201c[Vacancy rates in Calgary are] in line with the vacancy rate we saw in Manhattan during the Great Depression,\u201d said Antunes.<\/p>\n

Calgary\u2019s high vacancy rate is a double-edge sword for economic recovery, as it could attract new businesses to the city, but will also curtail potential growth from construction activity associated with the creation of new business spaces downtown, explained Antunes.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is an opportunity in some respects \u2013 this will bring people into the city,\u201d said Antunes.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut our senses are that this is going to be a strain on the supply side.\u201d<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no quick fix to the high vacancy rates downtown, said Steve Allan, the executive chair for Calgary Economic Development, in an interview.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve gone through these little swings, and occasionally we overbuild, but then we\u2019re able to absorb that space.<\/p>\n

“But that\u2019s not happening this time because changes to the energy industry are structural,\u201d Allan said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s going to be a long game.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite the challenge caused by high unemployment and downtown vacancy, there is reason for hope, said Nenshi.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe can clearly see we are in good recovery mode.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"
Assuring adaptation.\u00a0<\/strong>Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi delivers a speech at the Economic Outlook 2019 held at the TELUS Convention Centre in Calgary on Wednesday, Oct. 3, 2018. (Photo by Sean Feagan\/The Press)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Three years after the start of a devastating recession, Calgary\u2019s economy is growing, but is being held back by high unemployment and downtown vacancy rates. [ READ MORE ]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":511,"featured_media":46136,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ef_editorial_meta_text_assignment-slug":"S1 Outlook","footnotes":""},"categories":[212,711,13],"tags":[110,956,747],"class_list":{"0":"post-46124","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-downtown","8":"category-featured","9":"category-news","10":"tag-calgary","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-nenshi"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/511"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46124"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46124\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46416,"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46124\/revisions\/46416"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/saitjournalism.ca\/thepress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}